The price of the currency pair EUR/USD has hardly changed today, contrary to the price at the start of trading, currently it has recorded an increase of 0.05%. Thus, the euro hardly shows any change in market sentiment against the dollar after the slight correction on Friday. Last Thursday, the currency pair was still able to record a significant increase of about 0.8%, showing a slight recovery movement since the price decline, existing since the beginning of May. In this previous downward movement, the currency pair has lost over 4% at times.
In the longer term, this indicates that an M-formation has begun, with price peaks in the area above $1.10 and a bottoming out in the area slightly above the $1.05 mark. To complete this formation, the price would have to return to the $1.05 level. However, due to the current increase of 1.44% in total, this possible downward movement of over 2% seems less likely again for the time being. Currently, an increase in momentum would be more likely with a rise, first above the $1.08 level and later towards $1.10.
Dates, which could entail price movements, are expected this week numerous. Particularly relevant here should be the new inflation figures for Germany and also the U.S., which will be published tomorrow at 8:00 and 14:30 respectively. On Wednesday, we then expect another interest rate decision by the FED, while on Thursday the new unemployment figures in the U.S. will be announced.
Inflation figures are expected to rise slightly in each case, although the forecast for Germany is more negative, which should argue in favor of strength for the US dollar. However, if the FED raises rates again the following day, the U.S. dollar could weaken against the euro, as has happened with the last rate hikes. If a decline in unemployment figures is then announced on Thursday, as forecast, the US dollar should appear somewhat stronger again.