Review:
EUR/USD recovered significantly in the course of the past trading week. The main reason for this were statements by ECB officials regarding the upcoming interest rate hikes. EUR/USD managed a decisive rebound above the key resistance around USD 1.0480/1.0520. At the start of the week, the recovery movement initially continues.
Outlook:
The upcoming trading week has some very interesting economic data to offer. In particular, the purchasing managers’ indices from the U.S. and Europe on Tuesday and the PCE core rate (inflation data!) on Friday afternoon should be in the focus of traders. Furthermore, there is input from the monetary policy side again: On Wednesday, a Lagarde speech as well as the meeting minutes of the latest Fed meeting are on the calendar. So there should be a lot to do in terms of new movement impulses.
Technical outlook:
After the successful recapture of the 1.05 level, a short-term uptrend was established in the currency pair. Now, as long as the USD 1.0480/99 area is not undercut on the hourly close, the path of least resistance in the short term is further up into the USD 1.0750 to 1.0800 area. A first warning signal for the bulls would be a break of the upward trend line on the 4H chart.
Important events for the EUR/USD this week
Tuesday:
09:30: DE: Purchasing Managers’ Index Manufacturing May (preliminary)
3:45 p.m.: US: S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index Service Sector May (preliminary)
Wednesday:
10:00 Lagarde speech
20:00: US: Minutes of the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting
Thursday:
14:30: US: GDP Q1 (2nd release) q/q
Friday:
14:30: US: PCE core rate April m/m
