Review:
EUR/USD did not get above the horizontal resistance in the USD 1.0625 area mentioned last week in the past trading week. The weekly high was in the area of the 1.06 mark. However, the Bears did not manage to gain any sustainable ground afterwards either. What’s coming up in the week ahead?
Outlook:
After a rather quiet start to the week without any data worth mentioning, traders will focus on speeches by ECB chief Lagarde and Fed chief Powell at an ECB symposium in Portugal on Wednesday afternoon. As usual, we will be on the lookout for new indications of the development of key interest rates. Then on Thursday afternoon, the PCE index, a key Fed inflation indicator, is on the calendar. The end of the trading week will be marked by the Purchasing Managers’ Index for the manufacturing sector at 16:00 in the USA. Consumer prices from Germany on Wednesday are also likely to have a not insignificant impact on exchange rate developments.
Technical outlook:
The chart situation in the 4H chart has changed little or nothing in the past weeks. A short-term relevant horizontal resistance has been established in the area around USD 1.0625. Any recovery that takes place below this mark thus continues to have only a corrective character for the time being and should be replaced by a renewed sell wave. Only an hourly close above USD 1.0625 eases the precarious chart situation for the bulls a bit again. In that case, a continuation towards USD 1.0800 would be possible. Until then, however, downside risks continue to dominate for the time being.
Important events for the EUR/USD this week:
Monday:
14:30: US: New orders for durable goods May m/m
Tuesday:
16:00: US: Consumer Confidence Conference Board June
Wednesday:
14:00: DE: Consumer prices June (preliminary estimate) y/y
15:30 Speeches Lagerde + Powell
Thursday:
–
Friday:
16:00: US: ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index Manufacturing June
